31277762
Valid cases surely could be made for the rise of Sandra Bullock as the Best Actress front-runner, the impending milestone of Kathryn Bigelow becoming the first female to win Best Director and Lee Daniels being only the second black filmmaker ever nominated for a directing Oscar, but the biggest story of the 82nd Annual Academy Awards remains the one announced by the Academy’s Board of Governors last June: 10 Best Picture nominees.
Not since 1943 have more than five contenders competed for Oscar’s top prize. The widened field presumably was initiated to allow for more popular fare to slip in among typical Oscar bait, as well as remedy the telecast’s recent ratings slump. At least half of the initiative paid off, as this year’s Best Picture lineup is a mighty diverse bunch. Alongside usual suspects like The War Picture (“The Hurt Locker”) and The Sophisticated Adult Dramedy (“Up in the Air”), there’s an animated film (“Up”), a sci-fi thriller (“District 9”) and a cuddly crowd-pleaser (“The Blind Side”), none of which would likely have made the cut had there only been five slots.
The Best Picture race is really the only tough one to call among the six major categories, making it all the more interesting. Appropriately, on March 7, the final award of the evening is what will have viewers on the edge of their couches. As for the winners in acting and directing, those deals (and envelopes) are all but sealed.
Best Supporting Actress
Two surprise nominees showed up here: Maggie Gyllenhaal, who lacked a single precursor nomination for her work in “Crazy Heart,” and Penélope Cruz, who was up for Screen Actors Guild and Golden Globe awards for her sultry turn in “Nine,” but whose chances seemed shaky given the film’s poor reception. Both pulled through, knocking out the likes of Julianne Moore (“A Single Man”) and Diane Kruger (“Inglourious Basterds”).
Two other gals, the lovely Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick of “Up in the Air,” came in for smooth landings as expected. But no one will be able to topple the victory of Mo’Nique, whose astounding portrayal of a monstrous mother in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” won her virtually every other Supporting Actress award.
Will win: Mo’Nique
Should win: Mo’Nique
Possible upset: None
Best Supporting Actor
Like Supporting Actress, this race was essentially over before it began. As the fearsome “Jew Hunter” in “Inglourious Basterds,” Austrian actor Christoph Waltz snatched up just about as many precursor trophies as Mo’Nique, beginning with the Best Actor prize at the Cannes Film Festival.
No other nominee — not Matt Damon for his athletic but overpraised turn in “Invictus,” Stanley Tucci for his creepy rapist in “The Lovely Bones,” Christopher Plummer for his portrayal of Leo Tolstoy in “The Last Station,” nor Woody Harrelson for his potent work in the military drama “The Messenger” — poses even a minimal threat.
Will win: Christoph Waltz
Should win: Christoph Waltz
Possible upset: None
Best Actress
The most memorable nominee in this category? Gabourey Sidibe, whose performance as the title character in “Precious” couldn’t be further from the first-time actress’ bubbly persona. The feistiest? Helen Mirren, who wows as Tolstoy’s tempestuous wife in “The Last Station.” The most exciting? Carey Mulligan, who blooms before your eyes as a major star in the coming-of-age tale “An Education.” The most delicious? Meryl Streep, whose dead-on recreation of Julia Child in “Julie & Julia” landed her a record 16th nomination. But the one to beat? Sadly, it’s Sandra Bullock, whose long-standing Hollywood charm helped push her endearing, but hardly Oscar-worthy, turn as a steel magnolia in “The Blind Side” into the big game. I enjoy Bullock, but she’s the least deserving of this group.
Will win: Sandra Bullock
Should win: Meryl Streep
Possible upset: Meryl Streep
Best Actor
Colin Firth hit a career peak as a suicidal gay professor in Tom Ford’s directorial debut, “A Single Man.” With his work as a corporate ax man in “Up in the Air,” George Clooney reminded many why he may just be America’s last great male movie star. As the volatile vessel who guides us through “The Hurt Locker,” Jeremy Renner proved his considerable chops. And, while “Invictus” was a major letdown, Morgan Freeman captured the benevolent spirit of Nelson Mandela. Yet, Jeff Bridges, who carved out a fully formed character with his role as Bad Blake in “Crazy Heart,” will nab the golden boy this year, adding it to his already-crowded mantle. That he’s never won throughout his 40-plus-year career doesn’t hurt his chances.
Will win: Jeff Bridges
Should win: Jeff Bridges
Possible upset: George Clooney
Best Director
In addition to Bigelow (“The Hurt Locker”) and Daniels (“Precious”), this impressive category includes young Jason Reitman (“Up in the Air”), mad maestro Quentin Tarantino (“Inglourious Basterds”) and self-proclaimed “King of the World” James Cameron (“Avatar”). Some think Tarantino is overdue for the highest directorial honor, but most agree the top contenders are Bigelow and Cameron, who, oddly enough, once were married.
Cameron deserves lavish praise for envisioning a bold new world and practically revolutionizing the way we see movies, but Bigelow truly harnessed the power of the medium, getting more dramatic mileage out of imagery alone than any other filmmaker last year. Plus, the whole glass ceiling factor is hard to resist.
Will win: Kathryn Bigelow
Should win: Kathryn Bigelow
Possible upset: James Cameron
Best Picture
“Up” and “District 9” were two of 2009’s best and “A Serious Man,” “An Education” and even “The Blind Side” have their supporters. But any cinephile worth his salted popcorn will tell you the top five Best Picture candidates are those whose directors received nominations: “Avatar,” “The Hurt Locker,” “Inglourious Basterds,” “Precious” and “Up in the Air.”
There’s a growing amassment of Oscar pundits who believe “Basterds” will benefit from the new preferential ballot (which is way too convoluted to explain here), but I still think this race is between two very different horses: “Avatar,” which would be the highest-grossing winner ever, and “The Hurt Locker,” which would be the lowest. Some even say the future of movies is riding on the outcome. What will prevail? Expensive spectacle or gritty storytelling? Place your bets.
Will win: “The Hurt Locker”
Should win: “Up in the Air”
Possible upset: “Avatar”
Who will win?
The big night is March 7. Starting at 8 p.m. EST and showing on 6ABC, the wait will be over and the best films of 2009 will be crowned. Resident reviewer and movie expert R. Kurt Osenlund has an inkling of who will walk away with an Academy Award Sunday:
Best Picture: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
Best Actress: Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side”
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Up in the Air,” Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner
Best Original Screenplay: “The Hurt Locker,” Mark Boal
Best Animated Feature: “Up,” Pete Docter
Best Animated Short: “A Matter of Loaf and Death,” Nick Park
Best Documentary Feature: “The Cove,” Louie Psihoyos and Fisher Stevens
Best Documentary Short: “China’s Unnatural Disaster: Tears of Sichuan Province,” Jon Alpert and Matthew O’Neill
Best Live Action Short: “Kavi,” Gregg Helvey
Best Foreign Language Film: “The White Ribbon, (Das Weisse Band),” Michael Haneke, director, (Germany)
Best Cinematography: “The Hurt Locker,” Barry Ackroyd
Best Film Editing: “The Hurt Locker,” Bob Mirawski and Chris Innis
Best Visual Effects: “Avatar,” Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham and Andrew R. Jones
Best Art Direction: “Avatar,” Rick Carter, Robert Stromberg and Kim Sinclair
Best Costume Design: “The Young Victoria,” Sandy Powell
Best Makeup: “Star Trek,” Barney Burman, Mindy Hall and Joel Harlow
Best Sound Mixing: “Avatar,” Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Andy Nelson and Tony Johnson
Best Sound Editing: “Avatar,” Christopher Boyes and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle
Best Original Score: “Up,” Michael Giacchino
Best Original Song: “The Weary Kind, (Theme from ‘Crazy Heart’)” music and lyrics by Ryan Bingham and T-Bone Burnett
31277792
31277752
