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In its unending efforts to remedy Oscar stuffiness and better the telecast’s ratings, the Academy pulled a lot of tricks from its sleeve this year, changing the 10-wide field of the last two years to an uncertain total, and even announcing the eventual picks out of alphabetical order. Since pundits have never had a harder time predicting nominee outcomes, the tricks paid off, but that doesn’t mean the change produced a perfect slate.
In the end, nine films proved strong enough to net Best Picture nominations, when in fact, only seven of the available crop deserved to remain in the running. Let’s take a look at each of the contenders for 2012, and end each glimpse with where they rank in both worthiness and probability.
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Arguably the worst Best Picture nominee of the last decade, Stephen Daldry’s sugary adaptation of Jonathan Safran Foer’s twee best seller isn’t so much offensive for its post-9/11 melodrama, but for its shameless manipulation of the viewer, which admittedly uses the crumbling of the towers as its tear-wringing launchpad. Who knows how such a sizable number of Oscar nominators were able to stomach the young lead’s arsenal of grating quirks.
Probability: 9; Worthiness: 9
The Tree of Life
Depending on who you ask, “The Tree of Life” was either one of ’11’s finest achievements or one of its most vexing head-scratchers. It may very well be both, but trust the viewer who preaches the former, as it’s hard to go through any film year and come across a triumph as mammoth as Terrence Malick’s. A beauty of a movie whose subject is the whole of existence, it demands repeat viewings, and it will surely get them, as it’s bound to be studied for years to come.
Probability: 8; Worthiness: 2
War Horse
There’s no way Steven Spielberg’s sweeping heartwarmer wasn’t going to make its way into the final stretch, especially considering his throwback style falls right in line with this year’s favored theme of nostalgia. Widescreen spectacles didn’t get much better this year, but it takes a certain kind of person to fully enjoy this dusty movie — namely one who’s fine with ignoring 60 years of film-narrative evolution.
Probability: 7; Worthiness: 8
Moneyball
Sports movies don’t get much better than “Moneyball,” a drama with all sorts of ace assets to boast, including crackerjack writers like Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian, and the best performance of Brad Pitt’s career. It’s certainly conceivable that voters would want to give the edge to a film that’s all about exalting players with untapped value, but it may wind up being enough that such a well-made mainstream flick snuck into contention in the first place.
Probability: 6; Worthiness: 4
Midnight in Paris
The greatest success of Woody Allen’s career, “Midnight in Paris,” had no trouble clinching a Best Picture slot, pleasing critics, ticket-buyers and voters alike with its romantic buffet of 20th century cultural icons. This dramedic jaunt through the City of Light may have even nabbed the top prize in a year with weaker competition, but this year, it may just have to settle for Best Original Screenplay.
Probability: 5; Worthiness: 6
The Descendants
Alexander Payne’s Hawaii-set family drama is easily one of ’11’s most well-scripted films, its many strong pieces locking together with wit, heart and surprising nonchalance. And though George Clooney continues to be an overrated leading man, he and the rest of the cast offer ultra-solid performances that convey the material with superior humanity. There should be so many more American films like this one, which contain ample levity but aren’t afraid to challenge and unnerve. Again: A winner in another year, a Screenplay victor in this one.
Probability: 4; Worthiness: 3
"The Descendants"
Hugo
The second film to most directly nod to Hollywood’s formative years, Martin Scorsese’s “Hugo” covers so many bases, categorization is pretty much impossible. It’s essentially a kids’ movie, but it’s made for cinema-loving adults. It’s a film about a boy, but it’s also a famous director’s biopic. It’s a classy art house drama, but also a dazzling 3-D epic. This wide-reaching appeal bodes very well for the movie, and it’s the reason it leads the pack with a total of 11 nominations. But behind-the-scenes artistry is likely where the rewards will stay, as the Academy prepares to spread the wealth as wide as this movie’s audience.
Probability: 3; Worthiness: 5
The Help
Though hardly the pot-stirrer so many would have you believe, “The Help” is nevertheless a movie that deserves the ardent attention it’s received, if only because it’s so terribly easy to like. It’s most definitely backwards that two black actresses are poised to win Oscars for playing maids in the year ’12, but that takes nothing away from the fact that the film itself gives voice to African-American servants in ways few films have before. There’s real humor and heart in this wildly successful picture, but let us hope that, moving on, movies with more diverse black stories can score the same attention from the Academy.
Probability: 2; Worthiness: 7
The Artist
The unwavering frontrunner for many months, this impossibly charming, silent, black-and-white French crowd-pleaser could only lose if the Academy put an 11th-hour ban on wordless wonders. The narrative surrounding “The Artist’s” rise to the top is in itself irresistible: Are we really about to see a silent movie win the Best Picture award? Did this movie actually get made — and embraced — in an era defined by flash and effects? Could its theme of technology’s fast propulsion be any more relevant in these days of industry shift? Add to all of that an endearing love story, a disarming male lead, an adorable dog, and producer Harvey Weinstein, and you’ve got yourself a winner.
Probability: 1; Worthiness: 1
Contact the South Philly Review at editor@southphillyreview.com.
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