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Best Supporting Actress
Can anyone beat Octavia Spencer for her fiery, outsized performance in “The Help?” If all the major precursors are any indication, the answer is, “not on your life.” There isn’t a single high-profile pre-Oscar trophy that Spencer hasn’t claimed, making her impending win one of the most sewn-up victories of the night.
On the way-off chance there’s an unseen pocket of opposing support, odds are it’s for Melissa McCarthy, whose breakout turn in “Bridesmaids” was a favorite among so many film watchers (some think the funny gal can pull a comedic upset, a la Marisa Tomei in “My Cousin Vinny”). Happy to join the party, but bound to stay in their seats, are Janet McTeer (“Albert Nobbs”), Bérénice Bejo (“The Artist”) and Jessica Chastain (“The Help”), the latter of whom deserves to win if only for her stunning 2011 output.
Will Win: Spencer
Could Win: McCarthy
Should Win: Chastain
"The Help"
"Bridesmaids"
Best Supporting Actor
As much a lock as Spencer, “Beginners” co-star Christopher Plummer also has swept the ceremonies leading up to the big night for his tender role as a gay man finally liberated at the fresh age of 75. Giving the classiest speech at the Golden Globes, and maybe the SAG Awards, too, Plummer, 82, is poised to receive the show’s noisiest standing ovation for finally nabbing a statuette after decades in the biz. His toughest competition? For similar reasons, it’s fellow octogenarian Max von Sydow (also 82), a surprise nominee for “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close.” Here’s betting that Nick Nolte (“Warrior”), Kenneth Branagh (“My Week with Marilyn”) and especially Jonah Hill (“Moneyball”) are wishing they weren’t so damned … young.
Will Win: Plummer
Could Win: von Sydow
Should Win: Plummer
"Beginners"
"Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"
Best Actress
The closest race of the evening is easily the months-spanning, neck-in-neck face-off between friends Viola Davis (“The Help”) and Meryl Streep (“The Iron Lady”). In different years, you might have seen Michelle Williams (“My Week with Marilyn”) or Glenn Close (“Albert Nobbs”) pull ahead for their dedicated work, or maybe even Rooney Mara (“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”) for her dark breakthrough. But this year, it’s all about Streep and Davis, who’ve basically split the biggest pre-Oscar prizes for their roles as an unwavering politico and long-suffering housemaid, respectively. Streep’s got the Golden Globe and the BAFTA under her belt, while Davis has the SAG Award and the Critics’ Choice trophy. Either outcome would please many and surprise few, but despite Streep’s ever-increasing “overdue” status, the consensus is leaning toward Davis, whose supreme talent will be bolstered by what she’ll represent for women of color and, most likely, by Streep’s vote.
Will Win: Davis
Could Win: Streep
Should Win: Streep
"The Iron Lady"
Best Actor
Though not quite as close as Best Actress, this category is rather tight too, with three candidates scrambling for a gold man that any one of them could conceivably steal. For a time, it seemed that pals George Clooney (“The Descendants”) and Brad Pitt (“Moneyball”) were the men to beat, but with a SAG win, a Golden Globe win, and boundless support for his movie, Frenchman Jean Dujardin (“The Artist”) has emerged as the new front-runner, with Hollywood’s top two heartthrobs close behind. Both Gary Oldman (“Tinker Tailor Solider Spy”) and Demián Bichir were somewhat surprising inclusions in this race, beating out favorites like Leo DiCaprio (“J. Edgar”) and Michael Fassbender (“Shame”), but neither is likely to draw similar gasps on Oscar night. Will it be a leading man or a silent charmer who struts away with gold? Time will tell, but right now, place your bets on Dujardin.
Will Win: Dujardin
Could Win: Clooney
Should Win: Pitt
"The Artist"
"The Descendants"
"Moneyball"
Best Director
Though it’s not a highly common occurrence, Oscar does have a way of splitting its Picture and Director awards between two major films, specifically if both made a splash in their year of release. And since 2011 was the year to glance back at the dawn of cinema, it’s possible that Best Picture favorite “The Artist” could win alongside director Martin Scorsese, a beloved master whose nostalgic “Hugo” has more nominations (11) than any other film this season. A more likely scenario, though, is one that sticks with tradition: A win for “Artist” helmer Michel Hazanavicius, who, despite losing the Golden Globe to Scorsese, has claimed most major precursors, including the all-important Directors Guild honor.
It’s certainly not every year that a black-and-white foreign film captivates so many media makers, industry types, and plain old passionate moviegoers, and Hazanavicius isn’t about to lose for making that a reality. As for who should be taking home the award, it’s not Woody Allen (“Midnight in Paris”), and it’s not Alexander Payne (“The Descendants”); it’s Terrence Malick, whose sprawlingly ambitious, beautifully mystifying, and personal-yet-universal opus “The Tree of Life” stole away viewers’ breath like few recent films have.
Will Win: Hazanavicius
Could Win: Scorsese
Should Win: Malick
"Hugo"
"The Tree of Life"
See the Feb. 23 issue for a look at the Best Picture nominees.
Contact the South Philly Review at editor@southphillyreview.com.
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