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Best Picture
In a twist that’s all but guaranteed to lead to the most banal and undeserved Best Picture win since “Crash” trumped “Brokeback Mountain” in 2005, “The King’s Speech” has surged ahead of critics’ darling “The Social Network,” collecting in its royal robes the top trophies from the Producers, Directors and Screen Actors Guilds. Never has a movie entered the Oscar race with as many precursor wins as “The Social Network” (its current citations tally is somewhere in the 50s), only to falter in the final laps.
Why won’t it reach the finish line? “The Social Network” has been honored chiefly by media organizations — from the Hollywood Foreign Press to virtually every major critics’ group — who identify with the film’s commentary on modern communication and its exalting of the lacerating wit of computer-wielding super-geeks. But “The King’s Speech,” which stands at the head of the Oscar pack with 12 nominations, warmed the hearts of the guilds, whose memberships consist of a great deal of Academy voters. In recent years, those voters have seen their picks align with the picks of film journalists, showering gold on critical faves like “The Hurt Locker,” “Slumdog Millionaire” and “No Country for Old Men.” This year, though, the divide has returned, and the traditionalist fare that’s dominated the Academy’s history will once again be crowned.
The rest of the titles in the Best Picture category don’t stand a chance, but it’s worth noting there are none that feel terribly out of place, no sore thumbs like “The Blind Side” or “A Serious Man.” Only “The Fighter” drops well beneath the quality of its fellow contenders, and even that film has a personality and Oscar-friendly trajectory that help it fit nicely into the 10-wide field. All told, it’s a strong group, comprised mainly of must-see movies.
The nominees are: “Black Swan,” “The Fighter,” “Inception,” “The Kids Are All Right,” “The King’s Speech,” “127 Hours,” “The Social Network,” “Toy Story 3,” “True Grit” and “Winter’s Bone.”
Will win: “The King’s Speech”
Should win: “The Social Network”
Spoiler: “The Social Network”
Best Director
The Best Director category is where “The Social Network” may find the support it needs (in addition to the Best Adapted Screenplay category, which “Social” scribe Aaron Sorkin has in the bag). With his respected, if not always embraced, filmography, the brilliant David Fincher has what it takes to win here, especially since he was only just nominated in ’07 for “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.” “King’s Speech” director and Oscar newcomer Tom Hooper nabbed the Directors Guild prize, but odds are this year will see a Picture/Director split, which, again, would hearken back to ’05, when “Brokeback” helmer Ang Lee bested Paul Haggis of “Crash.”
The nominees are: Darren Aronofsy, “Black Swan”; Joel and Ethan Coen, “True Grit”; David Fincher, “The Social Network”; Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech”; and David O. Russell, “The Fighter.”
Will win: Fincher
Should win: Fincher
Spoiler: Hooper
Best Actor
By far the easiest category to call this year, Best Actor is all about Colin Firth’s heroic, career-best performance in “The King’s Speech,” a fact that’s remained unchanged since before the race began. Recipient of nearly every Oscar precursor, Firth has a sliver of competition in Jesse Eisenberg (and perhaps Oscar co-host James Franco), but to bet against him would be senseless.
The nominees are: Javier Bardem, “Biutiful”; Jeff Bridges, “True Grit”; Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network”; Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”; James Franco, “127 Hours.”
Will win: Firth
Should win: Eisenberg
Spoiler: Eisenberg
Best Actress
The race for Best Actress is just about locked up as well, which is saying quite a lot for the front-runner. Boasting stellar turns from Annette Bening, Nicole Kidman, Jennifer Lawrence, Natalie Portman and Michelle Williams, the leading-lady lineup is the strongest it’s been in years. For her moving work in “The Kids Are All Right,” Bening stands a slim chance to at last earn a career statuette, but prima ballerina Portman is more likely to twirl away victorious.
The nominees are: Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right”; Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole”; Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”; Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”; Michelle Williams, “Blue Valentine.”
Will win: Portman
Should win: Portman
Spoiler: Bening
Best Supporting Actor
And speaking of strong lineups, this year’s Best Supporting Actor hopefuls would spark some serious archive-digging for those in search of a better bunch. It’s a real shame Andrew Garfield of “The Social Network” had to get the ax, but if that’s what it took for someone like the great John Hawkes to be acknowledged, then so be it. Not that it matters all that much. Christian Bale, with his gaunt, all-guns-blazing, freakshow portrayal of drugged-out Dicky Eklund in “The Fighter,” could curse off the Oscarcast cameramen with arms flailing and still walk home a winner. Some predict Geoffrey Rush will benefit from the “King’s” reign, but that’s quite a long shot.
The nominees are: Christian Bale, “The Fighter”; John Hawkes, “Winter’s Bone”; Jeremy Renner, “The Town”; Mark Ruffalo, “The Kids Are All Right”; Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech.”
Will win: Bale
Should win: Hawkes
Spoiler: Rush
Best Supporting Actress
Finally there’s the most interesting of the six top races, one that has shifted throughout the season, etched out a clear front-runner, and will likely wind up in the favor of a child. Best Supporting Actress has been good to “Fighter” star Melissa Leo, who’s claimed awards in the category from the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild, to name only two entities. It’s also boosted the already-high profile of Leo’s co-star Amy Adams, who’s been a nomination staple throughout the season. But given a tacky, now-infamous For Your Consideration ad campaign by Leo, and the likelihood of a vote split among the two “Fighter” gals, look for 14-year-old “True Grit” star Hailee Steinfeld to reap the benefits, following in the footsteps of starlets like Tatum O’Neal and Anna Paquin as a pint-sized golden girl.
The nominees are: Amy Adams, “The Fighter”; Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech”; Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”; Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit”; Jacki Weaver, “Animal Kingdom.”
Will win: Steinfeld
Should win: Weaver
Spoiler: Leo
Best Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin, “The Social Network
Best Original Screenplay: David Seidler, “The King’s Speech”
Best Film Editing: Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter, “The Social Network”
Best Cinematography: Roger Deakins, “True Grit”
Best Costume Design: Colleen Atwood, “Alice in Wonderland”
Best Art Direction: Eve Stewart and Judy Farr, “The King’s Speech”
Best Makeup: Rick Baker and Dave Elsey, “The Wolfman”
Best Original Score: Alexandre Desplat, “The King’s Speech”
Best Original Song: A.R. Rahman, “If I Rise” from “127 Hours”
Best Sound Effects Editing: Richard King, “Inception”
Best Sound Mixing: Lora Hirschberg, Gary A. Rizzo and Ed Novick, “Inception”
Best Visual Effects: Paul Franklin. Chris Corbould, Andrew Lockley and Peter Bebb, “Inception”
Best Animated Feature: “Toy Story 3”
Best Foreign Language Film: “In a Better World,” Denmark
Best Documentary Feature: “Inside Job”
Best Documentary Short: “Killing in the Name,” Jed Rothstein
Best Animated Short: “Madagascar: A Journey Diary,” Bastien Dubois
Best Live Action Short: “The Confession,” Tanel Toom SPR
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