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Best Supporting Actor
Jonah Hill is having the best year of his professional life, going from rude-boy comedian to legit contender for his against-type work in “Moneyball.” Sadly, neither he nor his older competitors Kenneth Branagh (“My Week with Marilyn”) or Viggo Mortensen (“A Dangerous Method”) will be able to squeeze their way into the race between “Drive” villain Albert Brooks and “Beginners” delight Christopher Plummer, two veterans who’ve dominated the precursors. Brooks could take it, but Plummer has the edge, which should lead him all the way to the Kodak Theater podium come February.
Will win: Plummer
Could win: Brooks
Should win: Mortensen
Best Supporting Actress
Since she smart-mouthed her way into viewers’ hearts back in August, “The Help” scene-stealer Octavia Spencer has been an awards-season sure thing, and with Oscar spoiler Melissa McCarthy (“Bridesmaids”) shut out of the Globes race, this is Spencer’s statuette to lose. Berenice Béjo of “The Artist” and Janet McTeer of “Albert Nobbs” won’t come close, and the heat behind “The Descendants” standout Shailene Woodley has cooled. If anyone can snag Spencer’s gold, its her own co-star, Jessica Chastain, whose stunning breakout year could be enough to turn the vote.
Will win: Spencer
Could win: Chastain
Should win: Chastain
Best Actor – Comedy/Musical
In another year, you might have seen Ryan Gosling walk off with a trophy for his hunky humor in “Crazy, Stupid, Love,” or fan favorite Joseph Gordon-Levitt finish first for baring his sensitive side in “50/50.” But, this year, with a film like “The Artist” doing incredibly well in the precursors, it’s unlikely anyone will be able to touch Frenchman Jean Dujardin, who was honored at Cannes and will continue to reap his movie’s benefits. As for Brendan Gleeson of “The Guard” and Owen Wilson of “Midnight in Paris,” their honors were the nominations.
Will win: Dujardin
Could win: Gordon-Levitt
Should win: Gosling
Best Actress – Comedy/Musical
If Michelle Williams hadn’t been kept out of the dramatic race for her expert performance in “My Week with Marilyn,” this award could easily go to Charlize Theron, who’s killer in “Young Adult,” or Kristen Wiig, who takes the cake in “Bridesmaids.” As for Kate Winslet and Jodie Foster, both of whom are nominated for their work in “Carnage” (and only one of whom, Winslet, deserves it), consider it a case of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association filling space and getting stars in the building. To quote a colleague of mine, “They can mail this one to Williams.”
Will win: Williams
Could win: None
Should win: Williams
Best Picture – Comedy/Musical
“Bridesmaids” has become a surprise heavyweight in awards season, amassing a growing wealth of nods from critics’ groups and guilds. It stands a better chance to win here than fellow contenders “50/50,” “Midnight in Paris,” and “My Week with Marilyn,” the latter of which many would argue isn’t even a comedy. But all will cower at the feet of “The Artist,” the runaway favorite to win not just at the Globes, but at the Oscars as well. The silent, black-and-white Hollywood valentine should prove as irresistible to the HFPA as it has to critics and audiences the world over. It can’t be beat.
Will win: “The Artist”
Could win: None
Should win: “The Artist”
Best Actor – Drama Best
Like “The Ides of March,” the film for which he’s nominated, Gosling sits at the bottom of his field of contenders, and one should think he’s mainly here for the stellar year he’s had. Leonardo DiCaprio played a mean “J. Edgar,” but his film hasn’t had nearly enough support for him to clinch a victory, and the same goes for Michael Fassbender, whose devastating work in “Shame” can’t trump the movie’s polarizing content. The duel is between pals George Clooney and Brad Pitt, whose respective turns in “The Descendants” and “Moneyball” also will have them squaring off for the Oscar. Clooney’s the frontrunner, but I’m thinking Pitt sneaks in for the win.
Will win: Pitt
Could win: Clooney
Should win: Fassbender
Actress – Drama
With the exception of Rooney Mara (“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”), whose slot will be filled by Williams, this dramatic Best Actress lineup should repeat at The Academy Awards, as Glenn Close continues to soldier on as a knee-jerk candidate for “Albert Nobbs,” and Tilda Swinton has all but cemented herself in the top five with multiple noms for her work in “We Need to Talk About Kevin.” And no one’s bumping out Viola Davis (“The Help”) or Meryl Streep (“The Iron Lady”), the category’s two strongest nominees. Davis has heat, but this is Meryl’s year, and the HFPA, like everyone else, adores her.
Will win: Streep
Could win: Davis
Should win: Streep
Best Picture – Drama
Aside from the Producer’s Guild, the HFPA is about the only group to give Clooney’s cynical political thriller “The Ides of March” a fighting chance. The film is nominated here; however, it’s the least promising in a crop that also includes “War Horse,” “Moneyball,” “Hugo,” “The Help,” and Clooney’s other 2011 drama, “The Descendants.” Both “Hugo” and “War Horse” boast breathtaking spectacle, and “Moneyball” is a smart hit, but this race will come down to “The Help,” a crowd-pleasing box-office champ, and “The Descendants,” a humanistic family drama with heaps of critical kudos. Barring an upset, the latter should come out on top.
Will win: “The Descendants”
Could win: “The Help”
Should win: “The Descendants”
Other Category Predictions
Best Director: Martin Scorsese, “Hugo”
Best Screenplay: “The Descendants”
Best Animated Feature: “Rango”
Best Foreign Film: “A Separation”
Best Original Song: “The Living Proof” (from “The Help”)
Best Original Score: “The Artist”
For a full list of nominees, visit hfpa.org. SPR
Contact the South Philly Review at editor@southphillyreview.com.
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