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Sunday, the beautiful people will gather on the red carpet as the film industry gives its employees little golden statues for a job well done. I thought this year’s nominations were surprisingly on the mark, although there were still complaints.
Many thought "The Dark Knight" deserved a Best Picture nod, and even I was scratching my head when Bruce Springsteen’s "The Wrestler," from the movie of the same name, didn’t at least earn a nomination following his Golden-Globe win.
Below are my yearly predictions. Every category has three picks. The first two are self-explanatory, with "Enjoy the party" meaning "No chance in hell."
Except for Heath Ledger, who will absolutely win for his portrayal of the Joker, there are no sure things. "Slumdog Millionaire" for Best Picture is the closest, but even it has been the victim of backlash lately. Enjoy the Oscars and don’t eat too many chicken wings. Or is it guacamole dip?
Best Supporting Actor
I’m not a big fan of gambling, but if you happen to be in Vegas Sunday and decide to bet everything on Ledger I don’t think you’ll be disappointed. Winning will not make up for dying way before his time, but at least it gives his peers a chance to pay proper, well-deserved homage. The actor with the best chance of pulling an upset is Phillip Seymour Hoffman, who was the male lead in "Doubt."
The nominees:
Josh Brolin – "Milk"
Robert Downey Jr. – "Tropic Thunder"
Hoffman – "Doubt"
Ledger – "The Dark Knight"
Michael Shannon – "Revolutionary Road"
Who will win: Ledger
Most likely upset: Hoffman
Enjoy the party: Shannon
Best Supporting Actress
Many oddsmakers have Penelope Cruz as the overwhelming favorite in this category. I’ve heard she’s wonderful, although I have yet to see the movie. But the same people have Viola Davis second to Cruz, which means my pick of Davis is not totally out on a limb. In my review of "Doubt" last fall, I predicted she would at least get nominated. Some years the right person wins. I think this is her time.
The nominees:
Amy Adams – "Doubt"
Cruz – "Vicky Christina Barcelona"
Davis – "Doubt"
Taraji P. Henson – "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Marisa Tomei – "The Wrestler"
Who will win: Davis
Most Likely Upset: Cruz
Enjoy the party: Adams
Best Actor
This year seems to belong to Mickey Rourke. He’s already won several major awards, including a Golden Globe. The Academy loves comebacks, and his is as big as it gets. I wouldn’t quite call this category a lock, but the odds do seem to favor him. Sean Penn, who did win the New York Film Critics’ Circle Award for "Milk" seems to be the closest competitor. I’d love to see Frank Langella get it, but he won’t. The smart money seems to be on Rourke.
The nominees:
Richard Jenkins – "The Visitor"
Langella – "Frost/Nixon"
Penn – "Milk"
Brad Pitt – "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Rourke – "The Wrestler"
Who will win: Rourke
Most likely upset: Penn
Enjoy the party: Jenkins
Best Actress
At 33, Kate Winslet is the youngest actor to receive six Oscar nominations. I don’t know why she’s never won, but I’m pretty sure she’s going to win this time. It doesn’t hurt that she’s in a Holocaust movie, though that’s not a sure thing. Look at Rod Steiger in "The Pawnbroker." Pundits seem to be split between Meryl Streep and Anne Hathaway for the upset. If there is one, I’d pick Hathaway. As for Streep, she has two wins and 15 nominations. She’ll live.
The nominees:
Hathaway – "Rachel Getting Married"
Angelina Jolie – "Changeling"
Melissa Leo – "Frozen River"
Streep – "Doubt"
Winslet – "The Reader"
Who will win: Winslet
Most likely upset: Hathaway
Enjoy the party: Leo
Best Director
In a career lasting more than 20 years, Manchester’s Danny Boyle has finally gotten his first nomination. He also should win, but anything can happen. If there’s any competition, it seems David Fincher is also getting some of the best reviews of his career for "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button." Ron Howard, who won in 2002 for "A Beautiful Mind," did some fine work in "Frost/Nixon" and Gus Van Sant might deserve it for "Milk," but neither is going to win.
The nominees:
Boyle – "Slumdog Millionaire"
Stephen Daldry – "The Reader"
Fincher – "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Howard – "Frost/Nixon"
Van Sant – "Milk"
Who will win: Boyle
Most likely upset: Fincher
Enjoy the party: Daldry
Best Picture
The Academy loves movies that have the support of the moviegoing public and the critics, and no film fits that bill more this year than "Slumdog Millionaire." Based on the novel "Q & A" by Vikas Swarup, it has won the heart of most everybody who’s seen it. It’s closest competitor appears to be "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," but in the absence of a shocking upset, expect "Millionaire" to walk away with the most coveted statuette of the night.
The nominees:
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"Frost/Nixon"
"Milk"
"The Reader"
"Slumdog Millionaire"
Who will win: "Slumdog Millionaire"
Most likely upset: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Enjoy the party: "The Reader"
