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Long ago I realized that making predictions is a pretty iffy business. A long time ago, I predicted the Phillies trading Rick Wise for Steve Carlton would never work out. How did that guy Carlton work out? Predicting politics and the weather are two areas where bad predictions are born.
After Obama won in 2008, pundits predicted the demise of the Republican Party. Two years later, when the Republicans won the House, the same pundits predicted that Democrats were on the decline. Just last week, the Democrats rebounded to win a special election in the normally Republican 26th District in New York, and now it is the Republicans who are thought to be in danger of losing the House in the next election. It is widely believed this election was largely a referendum on the Republican plan to turn Medicare into a voucher system. I understand that Paul Ryan has received a massive number of thank you cards from Democratic politicians everywhere.
Remember when Obama announced he was running for president against Hillary Clinton? Most of the experts chuckled at the thought that someone with the middle name Hussein could have a chance against Clinton. This time around, the same experts have already discounted former governors Tim Pawlenty and Mitt Romney as sure losers if they run against Obama in ’12. That’s the thing about self-styled experts; they have short memories and lots of chutzpah.
Here’s a list of some of the worst predictions of all-time:
1. Adam will never take a bite of that apple.
2. How are a ragged bunch of farmers from the Colonies going to defeat the British Army?
3. The South will rise again.
4. Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev: ”We will bury you.”
5. Richard M. Nixon: “You won’t have Nixon to kick around anymore.”
6. George H. W. Bush: “Read my lips. No new taxes.”
7. Tom Cardella: ”Mark my words. The Phillies are going to miss Rick Wise.”
8. George W. Bush: “We will find the weapons of mass destruction.”
9. Jeffrey Lurie: “The Eagles will be known as the gold standard of the National Football League.”
10. Conventonal wisdom: “America will never vote for a black president.”
11. NBC: “If we move Leno to the 10 p.m. slot, we can’t miss.”
12. Harold Camper: ”The world will end May 21.”
13. Asked what he would do if May 22 came around and the world had not ended, Camper said, “That is not a possibility.”
14. Harold Camper: “The world will end Oct. 21.”
15. Various and sundry Southern politicians: “The federal government will never impose integration on the South.”
16. The Domino Theory: “If Vietnam falls to the communists, all the countries in Southeast Asia will topple like dominoes.”
17. Chicago Tribune in November 1948: “Dewey beats Truman.”
18. Chelsea Kane will definitely win “Dancing with the Stars.”
19. Tiger Woods is a cinch to go down as the greatest golfer in history.
20. Donald Rumsfeld on the Iraq War: ”It could last six days, six weeks. I doubt six months.”
21. H.M. Warner: ”Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?”
22. Ronald Reagan: Medicare is a slippery slope to socialized medicine.
23. Gary Cooper on turning down the role of Rhett Butler in “Gone with the Wind: ”I’m glad it will be Clark Gable and not Gary Cooper who will be falling on his face.”
24. “Drill. Baby, drill,” Sarah Palin prior to the BP oil spill.
25. “Drill. Baby, drill,” Sarah Palin after the BP oil spill.
26. Ford Motor Co.: This new car, the Edsel, should be a hit with the American public.
27. Frank Knox, U.S. Secretary of the Navy: ”Whatever happens, the U.S. Navy is not going to be caught napping.” (Dec. 4, 1941)
28. Dick Cheney: ”Deficits don’t matter.”
Here’s a list of predictions I just made up, but could have happened:
29. Nobody is ever going to eat chopped up ham in a can.
30. Michael Vick will never be accepted by Eagles fans.
31. Who’s going to go watch the Phillies in the new ballpark?
32. Just let Kate Smith sing “God Bless America” and the Flyers can never lose.
33. Milton Street won’t get five votes (he got 24 percent of the Democratic vote for mayor, which come to think of it might have been five votes).
34. I don’t have to vote in the primary; my vote won’t mean much anyway.
35. You’re going to replace books with something called a Nook?
36. That will be the day when a hot babe like Jamie Lee Curtis is selling a yogurt that works like a laxative.
37. Americans will never eat raw fish.
38. Circa 1960: You can never find a place to eat in Philadelphia.
39. Before Subway: How can you sell a hoagie as diet food?
40. The NFL makes too much money to risk losing a season because of a labor dispute.
41. I’m going to make a fortune. I found this smart financial adviser. His name is Madoff.
42. Angle parking will never eliminate double-parking in our neighborhood.
43. They can never improve on these 8-tracks.
44. They wouldn’t dare try to replace Charlie Sheen on “Two and a Half Men.”
45. This DROP fund is a great idea.
46. Who’s going to pay $4 for a cup of coffee with some steamed milk in it?
47. By the year 2000, we’ll all be living to 100 and visiting other planets.
48. Yeah, and next you’re going to be telling me that we’ll be borrowing from China.
49. As Republicans contemplate not raising the debt ceiling — one thing you can always count on is the full faith and credit of the U.S. government.
50. Someday soon, Philadelphia will have a Republican mayor. SPR
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